Macroeconomic Outlook

The Macroeconomic Policy Division is analyzes, models, and forecasts the main macroeconomic variables relevant for fiscal policy.

Economic Outlook 2020-2025*

  2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

GDP
(annual change, percent)

-6.0

5.0

3.7

3.3

2.8

2.5

Domestic Demand
(annual change, percent)

-9.3

8.8

5.4

3.7

3.1

2.7

Average CPI Index
(annual change, percent)

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

Nominal Exchange Rate
($/US$, average level)

792

723

722

728

734

740

LME Copper price
(US$c/pound, average level)

280

335

320

315

310

310

*Correspond to the assumptions contained in the quarterly Public Finance Report for the third quarter of 2020.
Source: Ministry of Finance.

One of the main deliverables of the Macroeconomic Policy Division is the analysis of the Macroeconomic Outlook, disclosed annually in the State of Public Finance (Annual Report).

The Macroeconomic Policy Division is also responsible for updating the projections of the Macroeconomic Outlook, used in the quarterly Public Finance Report (IFP) led by the Budget Office. Each year, the IFP that corresponds to the third quarter, includes the macroeconomic forecasts that are considered to determine the fiscal revenues, a fundamental variable for the Budget Law discussion.

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