Fitch affirms Chile's rating at A- and highlights fiscal consolidation and the government's reform agenda
The agency maintained the stable outlook and underscored the fiscal adjustment driven by the current administration, progress on its economic agenda, and an investment pipeline at its highest level in more than a decade.
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Chile's long-term foreign-currency sovereign debt rating at "A-", with a stable outlook. The decision confirms the course of fiscal consolidation that the government of President José Antonio Kast has pursued since March this year. It is underpinned by a relatively solid sovereign balance sheet, with a debt-to-GDP ratio lower than that of comparable countries, and by a track record of credible macroeconomic policies.
The agency notes that, so far under the current administration, real fiscal revenues grew 7.0% year-on-year through July, driven by higher mining revenues, while public spending contracted 0.7% as a result of the fiscal adjustment pursued by the Executive. On this basis, Fitch forecasts that the fiscal deficit will narrow from 2.7% of GDP in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026, and will continue to decline in 2027, supported by high copper prices and the spending discipline that has characterized this administration.
Public debt held steady at 41.7% of GDP in 2025, the first time in two decades that it has not increased. Fitch forecasts that, under the current fiscal management, debt will rise to 42.8% of GDP in 2026 before stabilizing at around 43%, well below the 59% average for "A"-rated countries.
The report also acknowledges the economic agenda of President Kast's government, in particular the National Reconstruction and Economic Development and Social Progress bill, which lowers the corporate tax rate to 23% by 2029 and seeks to cut permitting times by 40%. It notes that the projected investment pipeline for 2026–2030 reaches a record USD 95.1 billion, of which USD 25 billion corresponds to 2027 alone, led by mining and energy.
As for its 2026 growth forecast, the agency revised it to 0.7%, taking into account the effects of transitory shocks that have hit sectors such as mining, agriculture, and fishing, together with an external environment marked by higher oil prices.